Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
377 mana
Total volume
377 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Elon Musk disable Ukraine's access to Starlink before the end of the war?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 2:13 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 28.2% (down from 31.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 377 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
28.2%
−3.3 percentage points
over 24 hours31.5% → 28.2%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
66%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
5
over 4h
Largest order
250 mana
377 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 4h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$377 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (31.5% → 28.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 2:21 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 66% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (4 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next541 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~8h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-1.36H-3.324H-3.37D-3.3
Related markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12%YESTrust 91
Polymarket$123.8K 24h
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
40%YESTrust 82
Polymarket$54.2K 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
35%YESTrust 27
Polymarket$42.2K 24h
Will Anthropic's market cap on the day of their IPO be above 2 trillion?
43%YESTrust 40
Manifold50 mana 24h
Will 2027 be the hottest year on record
67%YESTrust 40
Manifold30 mana 24h
Will Manifold Market be shut down for corruption (stealing trades off the books) and swaying outcomes by EOY 2027?
14%YESTrust 0
Manifold335.8 mana 24h