Will an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 4:58 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 12.7% (up from 5.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ268.6 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (7.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2030, an artificial intelligence (AI) agent or autonomous software algorithm is directly convicted of a criminal offense in a recognized court of law. For a YES resolution, the following conditions must be met: The AI agent itself must be formally named as a defendant in a criminal case and found guilty or convicted by a court (local, national,…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2030, an artificial intelligence (AI) agent or autonomous software algorithm is directly convicted of a criminal offense in a recognized court of law. For a YES resolution, the following conditions must be met: The AI agent itself must be formally named as a defendant in a criminal case and found guilty or convicted by a court (local, national, federal, or international). The legal system must treat the AI agent itself as the criminally liable party, rather than attributing the liability to a human developer, user, or corporate owner. The market will resolve to NO under any of the following circumstances: No such conviction occurs before January 1, 2030. A human developer, user, owner, or standard corporate entity (such as an LLC, even if fully run by an AI) is convicted of a crime for actions involving or executed by an AI. An AI is involved in civil litigation, regulatory penalties, or administrative fines, but not a criminal conviction. The conviction occurs as part of a mock trial, academic simulation, or hypothetical legal exercise.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 7.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (5.0% → 12.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2029 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 5:06 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 7.7 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ268.6
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ605.5
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 12.7%
- 7-day range
- 5.0% – 12.7%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2029