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The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Will Amy Klobuchar win all counties in the 2026 DFL Governor primary? The current Manifold probability is 69.3%, essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Amy Klobuchar wins the most votes in every single one of Minnesota's 87 counties in the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026. If any other candidate wins the most votes in one or more counties, or if there is a tie for the most votes in any county between Klobuchar and another candidate, this market will resolve to NO. Resolution will be determined based on the official, certified county-by-county results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State. Background Following Governor Tim Walz's decision in January 2026 not to seek a third term, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her campaign for Governor of Minnesota and secured the DFL party's endorsement at the state convention in May. While Klobuchar is the heavy favorite to win the DFL primary on August 11, 2026, several other candidates are on the ballot. This market specifically tracks whether she will achieve a clean sweep by winning the plurality of votes in all 87 Minnesota counties.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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