Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
160.1 mana
Total volume
543.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 10:58 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 72.8% (up from 68.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 160.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
72.8%
+4.2 percentage points
over 24 hours68.6% → 72.8%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 4.1 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
36%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
95
over 66 days
Largest order
54.7 mana
298.6 mana traded across these 95 trades (last 66 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$298.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves yes if Abdul el Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary for senate and the 2026 us senate in Michigan general election. (Identical market to: source market)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves yes if Abdul el Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary for senate and the 2026 us senate in Michigan general election. (Identical market to: source market)
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (68.6% → 72.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 11:09 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 4.2 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 9 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next1277 observed
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
160.1 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
543.7 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 72.8%
- 7-day range
- 68.6% – 80.0%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
Change (pts)1H-4.16H+4.224H+4.27D+4.2