ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 9m ago

Will Abdul El Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Election by 3% or more?

As of Nov 1, 2026, 7:30 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 52.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 540.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
52.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

540.9 mana

Total volume

18.9K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
51%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

24

Trades

119

over 22 days

Largest order

2K mana

24.3K mana traded across these 119 trades (last 22 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$24.3K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolves yes if Abdul el sayeds wins the 2026 us senate election in Michigan and his winning margin is 3% or more.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves yes if Abdul el sayeds wins the 2026 us senate election in Michigan and his winning margin is 3% or more.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 7:39 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next418 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H+1.26H0.024H0.07D0.0

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