Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
42.1 mana
Total volume
157.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Abdul El Sayed win Michigan senate 2026 election?
As of Oct 21, 2026, 7:23 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 67.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 42.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
67.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
34%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
11
over 14 days
Largest order
50 mana
149.2 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 14 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$149.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan. This market resolves to NO if Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, is disqualified, withdraws, or is otherwise not elected. The primary source for resolution will be the official results certified and published by the Michigan Department of State. If official certification is delayed, the market may resolve based on a consensus projection from major national news outlets (such as the Associated Press, NBC News, and CNN). Background The 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to fill the seat left vacant by retiring incumbent Senator Gary Peters. Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and former Wayne County public health director, won the Democratic primary on August 4, 2026. He faces Republican nominee and former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in the general election. Polling in October 2026 has shown a highly competitive, statistical dead heat between the two candidates. If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim member in the history of the United States Senate.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeNovember 3, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 21, 7:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
17Low
Where the price path tends to go next488 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0