Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?

Resolution

Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it. A ceasefire counts even if it later collapses. The question is whether one takes effect inside the window - not whether it holds. RESOLUTION SOURCES (priority order): English Wikipedia, "2026 Iran war" - whether the article records a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect within the window Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com) Reuters or Associated Press WHAT DOES NOT COUNT: A unilateral or de facto operational pause that neither government characterises as a ceasefire. Example: the 26-27 July 2026 pause, in which the US halted strikes and Tehran said it had too, but no mutual agreement was announced. That is explicitly a NO under this market. A ceasefire solely between Israel and Iran, or one solely covering Strait of Hormuz shipping, that does not cover US-Iran hostilities. Reaffirmation, extension, or restoration of a ceasefire that took effect before 2026-08-01. It must be a new one taking effect inside the window. Announced-but-not-yet-in-effect agreements. The ceasefire must actually commence before 2026-09-30 ends. BACKGROUND: The war began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. A memorandum of understanding signed by Trump and Pezeshkian on 17 June 2026 collapsed. A subsequent ceasefire was repeatedly undermined and then shredded after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A two-day mutual pause on 26-27 July 2026 did not become an agreement. On 30 July 2026 the US carried out dozens of retaliatory strikes on the IRGC, and Iran struck targets in Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt. I will not use personal discretion on the underlying facts. If the named sources conflict, priority order governs. If no qualifying ceasefire is reported by any of them before the close, this resolves NO.