Will a Manifolder win the Metaculus Fall Cup.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 8.9 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 8.9 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 8.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (49.5% → 40.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 21, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 9, 10:24 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 8.9 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ95.7
Liquidity
Ṁ200
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 40.5%
- 7-day range
- 40.5% – 49.5%
- Resolves
- Dec 21, 2026