Market prices a 7.6% chance of “Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027” — down 42.4 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?”
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (42.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 42.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 7.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMarch 31, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 6, 7:04 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ381.4
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed