Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
77.4 mana
Total volume
442.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:52 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 61.0% (up from 59.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 77.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
61.0%
+1.1 percentage points
over 24 hours59.9% → 61.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
27%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
10
Trades
15
over 99 days
Largest order
100 mana
405.4 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 99 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$405.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2029 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 4:04 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next432 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.124H+1.17D+1.1