ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDevelopingUpdated 5m ago

Will 0xDe89112492A292c194D2501b2721D4Bc6cED2A75 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 25th 11:59 pm UTC

As of Oct 19, 2026, 7:20 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.4% (up from 4.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.3K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
5.4%
+0.9 percentage points
over 24 hours4.5% → 5.4%
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

10K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

1.3K mana

Total volume

1.3K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
92%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

4

Trades

7

over 37 min

Largest order

500 mana

1.3K mana traded across these 7 trades (last 37 min).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$1.3K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 25, 2026 at 7:58 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 7:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
  • Little executed flow — price is quote-driven, not trade-driven

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
27Low
Where the price path tends to go next1663 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting98%
  • Stable consensus1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.924H+0.97D+0.9

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