ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 9m ago

Steph Curry traded before new season starts?

As of Oct 19, 2026, 7:20 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.8% (down from 16.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
8.8%
−8 percentage points
over 24 hours16.8% → 8.8%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

100 mana

Total volume

236.3 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
85%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

7

Trades

13

over 81 days

Largest order

50 mana

234.7 mana traded across these 13 trades (last 81 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$234.7 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Stephen Curry is officially traded from the Golden State Warriors to another NBA franchise before the tip-off of the first official game of the 2026–27 NBA regular season (scheduled to begin on October 20, 2026). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Stephen Curry is officially traded from the Golden State Warriors to another NBA franchise before the tip-off of the first official game of the 2026–27 NBA regular season (scheduled to begin on October 20, 2026). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Key Rules & Edge Cases: Source of Truth: The trade must be officially confirmed by the NBA, announced by the franchises involved, or reported by highly reliable sports news outlets (such as ESPN or NBA.com) and leading league insiders (such as Shams Charania) prior to the start of the season's first game. Timing: The trade transaction must be officially completed and registered with the NBA office before the scheduled tip-off of the opening game of the regular season. An "agreed in principle" report that is not finalized by that time will resolve to NO. Retirement/Buyout: If Curry retires, is waived, or has his contract bought out prior to the season's start without being traded, the market resolves to NO. Season Delay: If the start of the 2026–27 NBA regular season is delayed for any reason, the resolution cutoff will adjust to the new tip-off time of the first regular-season game. Background Stephen Curry is entering the final year of his contract for the 2026–27 NBA season, where he is scheduled to earn $62.6 million. He becomes eligible to sign a two-year, $136.7 million contract extension on August 29, 2026. Following a relatively quiet offseason for the Golden State Warriors—which saw them miss out on landing top targets like LeBron James and deal with a long-term injury to Jimmy Butler—reports suggest Curry may delay signing an extension to pressure the front office into aggressive "win-now" roster moves. This friction has fueled speculation about his long-term future in San Francisco. However, league insiders maintain that the Warriors and Curry have a strong mutual interest in finalizing an extension, making an offseason trade highly improbable. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (16.8% → 8.8%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 22, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 7:29 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 8.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next629 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~8h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-8.024H-8.07D-8.0

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