Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
125 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
428.1 mana
Total volume
4.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Republicans win Wisconsin 7th Congressional District in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 5:57 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 95.0% (up from 94.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 428.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 125 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
95.0%
+1 percentage point
over 24 hours94.0% → 95.0%
Stale priceNot live — snapshot Nov 4, 5:57 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
60%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
15
Trades
87
over 47 days
Largest order
460 mana
3.8K mana traded across these 87 trades (last 47 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$3.8K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin - Wikipedia [link preview]
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin - Wikipedia [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 18, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:27 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next739 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+1.07D+1.0
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