PSG three-peat the ucl
As of Oct 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 13.7% (up from 12.2% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ17.5 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) wins the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, securing their third consecutive UCL title. The market will resolve to NO if any other club wins the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, or if the tournament is canceled or not completed such that no winner is declared by December 31, 2027.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) wins the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, securing their third consecutive UCL title. The market will resolve to NO if any other club wins the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, or if the tournament is canceled or not completed such that no winner is declared by December 31, 2027. The resolution will be determined based on the official match outcomes and tournament standings published by UEFA. Background PSG secured their first-ever UEFA Champions League title in the 2024/25 season with a 5–0 victory over Inter Milan. They successfully defended their title in the 2025/26 season, defeating Arsenal on penalties on May 30, 2026. Having won back-to-back titles, PSG enters the 2026/27 Champions League campaign with the opportunity to achieve a historic "three-peat". The 2026/27 Champions League final is scheduled to be played on June 5, 2027, at the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid, Spain.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 2, 2029 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 12:11 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ17.5
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.7K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 13.7%
- 7-day range
- 12.2% – 13.7%
- Resolves
- Jun 2, 2029