If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve based on the following conditions: YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve based on the following conditions: YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy. An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate. NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election). N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 3, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 19, 10:07 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Market data
24h volume
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