Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
200 mana
Total volume
204 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If elected, will Abdul El-Sayed serve on the Senate Foreign Relations committee?
As of Oct 18, 2026, 6:51 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.3% (down from 10.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 200 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
8.3%
−1.7 percentage points
over 24 hours10.0% → 8.3%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
49%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
5
over 41h
Largest order
100 mana
204 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 41h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$204 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Abdul El-Sayed is on the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations after the first assignment in the 120th Congress. If he is later added to the committee in future months/years, it doesn’t count for this market.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Abdul El-Sayed is on the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations after the first assignment in the 120th Congress. If he is later added to the committee in future months/years, it doesn’t count for this market. Only the first Committee assignments will be used. Resolves NO if he wins and is not on the committee. Resolves n/a if he loses his 2026 senate election. AI explainer on how you get on the committee: it's a party process, then a formal Senate vote. Request. Senators, usually at the start of a new Congress, tell their party which committees they want. Party selection. Each party picks its own members. Republicans use their Steering Committee and Democrats use their Steering and Outreach Committee. They weigh seniority, the senator's preferences, expertise, regional and ideological balance, and the leader's input. Party seat count. The majority party gets more seats and sets the ratio. The current committee has 22 seats, 12 Republican and 10 Democratic. Approval. Each conference ratifies its slate, and then the full Senate adopts a resolution formalizing the assignments. This vote is almost always a formality.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 15, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 6:59 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next586 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.724H-1.77D-1.7