Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
100 mana
Total volume
152 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 7:09 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 7.0% (down from 7.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
7.0%
−0.7 percentage points
over 24 hours7.6% → 7.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
66%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
3
Trades
5
over 6 days
Largest order
50 mana
152 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 6 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$152 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican). Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate confirms 40 or more Article III judges (Supreme Court, courts of appeals, district courts and the Court of International Trade) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, as counted by the Federal Judicial Center's biographical directory or the Senate's record of confirmations. Resolves NO otherwise. This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes. Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 3, 2029 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 7:12 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next743 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.724H-0.77D-0.7
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