Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
100 mana
Total volume
100 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Donald Trump Win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2028?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 4:22 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 3.4% (down from 7.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
3.4%
−3.6 percentage points
over 24 hours7.0% → 3.4%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — only a few trades sit behind today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
1
Trades
1
Largest order
100 mana
100 mana traded across these 1 trades.
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$100 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (7.0% → 3.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2028 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 4:29 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 100% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
17Low
Where the price path tends to go next1235 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
100 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
100 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 3.4%
- 7-day range
- 3.4% – 7.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.624H-3.67D-3.6
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