If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolves n/a if Markwayne does not become dhs secretary (Secretary of homeland security) in 2026. Resolves yes if Markwayne Mullin serves continuously as dhs secretary until 19 Jan 2029.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves n/a if Markwayne does not become dhs secretary (Secretary of homeland security) in 2026. Resolves yes if Markwayne Mullin serves continuously as dhs secretary until 19 Jan 2029. Resolves NO if Markwayne Mullin is out as dhs secretary before 19 Jan 2029. This market will resolve on announcement of Markwayne leaving the role, if he does leave. If role is renamed and he stays, will be on that role. Eg. Department of Defense> department of war sort of thing. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 18, 2029 at 7:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 5:46 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Geopolitics