ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 10m ago

How will I rate Vilenkin 1998b? (+free lottery)

As of Oct 12, 2026, 6:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 55.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 55 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
55.2%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

10K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

55 mana

Total volume

55 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
91%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

4

Trades

6

over 5h

Largest order

50 mana

55 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 5h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$55 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 13, 2026 at 11:46 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 6:28 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next460 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting93%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%
  • Stable consensus2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

55 mana

Liquidity

10K mana

Total volume

55 mana

Category
Other
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
55.2%
7-day range
55.0% – 55.2%
Resolves
Oct 13, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.224H+0.27D+0.2

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