How will I rate Vilenkin 1998? (+free lottery)
Source: Manifold price history
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 60.2%
- Event deadline
- October 11, 2026 at 11:11 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
How will I rate Vilenkin 1998? (+free lottery) The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 60.2%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- October 11, 2026 at 11:24 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 12, 2026 at 12:27 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 11, 2026 at 11:11 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 1h ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail. Vilenkin (1998) "Singular instantons and the creation of open universes" Free Lottery After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time. For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader. Past winners @PaperBoy 100Ṁ @hogshedges 100Ṁ @Pancarre 300Ṁ @wolf 400Ṁ @Chumchulum 200Ṁ @KarlWang 4000Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ @2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ @jbm 300Ṁ @AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ @Primer 300Ṁ @Brierbr 300Ṁ @DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner) @Chimpy 300Ṁ @Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner) @dawxgBot 300Ṁ @Handmadefilms 300Ṁ @AIM 300Ṁ
Market data
24h volume
0 mana
Liquidity
10K mana
Total volume
57 mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 60.2%
- Resolves
- Oct 11, 2026