Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading market detail…
Currently 70% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 43/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail. Tipler (1977) "Singularities in conformally flat spacetimes" Free Lottery After a day or two, I will ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number M among 1 to 100 in the comments. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time. For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader. Previous winners @PaperBoy 100Ṁ @hogshedges 100Ṁ @Pancarre 300Ṁ @wolf 400Ṁ @Chumchulum 200Ṁ @KarlWang 4000Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ @2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ @jbm 300Ṁ @AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ @Primer 300Ṁ @Brierbr 300Ṁ @DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner) @Chimpy 300Ṁ @Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner) @dawxgBot 300Ṁ
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]