ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 1h ago

Did Russia assassinate Lindsey Graham?

As of Oct 6, 2026, 9:56 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ50 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
5.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
8487 days until the event deadline
Deadline: January 1, 2050 at 7:04 AM ET

Data is not live — latest snapshot Oct 6, 9:56 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$869.1 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolves YES if strong evidence emerges that Russia assassinated Lindsey Graham before January 1st 2050. “Russia” includes the Russian state, its government, military, intelligence services, or agents or proxies acting under their direction or with their authorization.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves YES if strong evidence emerges that Russia assassinated Lindsey Graham before January 1st 2050. “Russia” includes the Russian state, its government, military, intelligence services, or agents or proxies acting under their direction or with their authorization. “Assassinated” means Lindsey Graham was intentionally killed for political, strategic, or state-related purposes. Strong evidence includes, but is not limited to: A formal attribution by the United States government or another highly credible government; A court judgment or criminal conviction establishing Russian responsibility; A clear consensus among multiple reputable, independent investigations based on corroborated documentary, forensic, intelligence, or eyewitness evidence; An admission by the Russian government or by directly involved officials or operatives, supported by credible corroboration. Unverified claims, anonymous allegations without corroboration, speculation, circumstantial evidence, or reporting based primarily on a single disputed source do not qualify as strong evidence. If, as of January 1st 2050, there is credible but inconclusive evidence of Russian responsibility, the market resolves N/A. If there is no credible evidence of Russian responsibility by that date, the market resolves NO. If the market has resolved NO or N/A and strong evidence later emerges, including after January 1st 2050, the market may be re-resolved YES.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2050 at 7:04 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 6, 11:07 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next1123 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ50

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ904.4

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
5.3%
Resolves
Jan 1, 2050
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0