Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
36.1 mana
Total volume
1.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Crypto: "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high above $100,000 in 2026?"
As of Oct 16, 2026, 2:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.5% (down from 6.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 36.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
5.5%
−0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours6.0% → 5.5%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
54%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
10
Trades
28
over 56 days
Largest order
126.1 mana
600.3 mana traded across these 28 trades (last 56 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$600.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Bitcoin (BTC) achieves a new all-time high (ATH) at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. To achieve a new all-time high, Bitcoin's price must exceed its previous record of $126,198.07 (established on October 6, 2025).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Bitcoin (BTC) achieves a new all-time high (ATH) at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. To achieve a new all-time high, Bitcoin's price must exceed its previous record of $126,198.07 (established on October 6, 2025). Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using the BTC/USD price reported by major tracking sites such as CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, or major spot exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) via TradingView. Clarification on the $100,000 Threshold: Because the existing ATH of $126,198.07 is already above $100,000, any new ATH set in 2026 will mathematically satisfy the "above $100,000" condition. If Bitcoin trades above $100,000 in 2026 but does not break its previous ATH of $126,198.07, this market will resolve to NO. Background Bitcoin experienced an immense bull run in late 2024 and 2025, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time in December 2024 and reaching its historic peak of $126,198.07 on October 6, 2025. Following that peak, the price underwent a correction and has traded mostly in the $70,000 to $80,000 range through mid-2026. This market tracks whether Bitcoin can regain its upward momentum to set a brand new record high before the end of 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 2:16 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next550 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-0.57D-0.5
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