Claude Haiku dying in 3 months?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.1% (down from 15.7% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ1.5K traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ600 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Criteria Resolves YES, if, before October 17: no new Haiku is released (newer than Haiku 4.5) OR Haiku doesn't appear anymore on the Claude web app Context Haiku is going to be deprecated. Sonnet is going to be the Haiku.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Criteria Resolves YES, if, before October 17: no new Haiku is released (newer than Haiku 4.5) OR Haiku doesn't appear anymore on the Claude web app Context Haiku is going to be deprecated. Sonnet is going to be the Haiku. Opus is going to be the new sonnet. And Fable the new premium Opus. - An internet user, somewhere
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (15.7% → 5.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 17, 2026 at 5:14 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ1.5K
Liquidity
Ṁ600
Total volume
Ṁ3.8K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 5.1%
- 7-day range
- 5.0% – 15.7%
- Resolves
- Oct 17, 2026