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Currently 13% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 46/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Only Manifold has this matched event in the current feed
On jan 1 2027, i will send the best (non-explicitely-specialized for this task) model at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable or better to the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. (Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed) can pick a movie that doesnt have copyright if need be (https://www.youtube.com/embed/fvfp9L-qU7k?si=qCXEHIMcyziRmX1I)
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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