ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 2h ago

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

As of Oct 18, 2026, 1:10 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 24.2% (down from 27.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 18.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
24.2%
−3.2 percentage points
over 24 hours27.4% → 24.2%
Not live — snapshot Oct 18, 1:10 AM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

18.9 mana

Total volume

300.2 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
44%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

10

Trades

116

over 77 days

Largest order

40 mana

287.2 mana traded across these 116 trades (last 77 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$287.2 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if an ICE agent kills an American citizen before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on verified news reports confirming the death of a U.S.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if an ICE agent kills an American citizen before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on verified news reports confirming the death of a U.S. citizen at the hands of an ICE agent. The victim must be confirmed as a U.S. citizen by credible sources (news organizations, government statements, or court documents). Accidental deaths unrelated to enforcement actions do not count. Background An ICE agent fatally shot a woman in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026, marking a significant escalation in immigration enforcement operations. The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a 37-year-old mother and U.S. citizen. This is at least the fifth person killed in a handful of states since 2024, with federal officers fatally shooting at least three other people in the last five months prior to the Minneapolis incident. The Trace has counted more than a dozen such shootings involving ICE and Border Patrol agents in recent months. Considerations The Minneapolis shooting has generated significant dispute over the circumstances. Dueling narratives emerged over what led to the shooting, with DHS claiming the woman "weaponized her vehicle, attempting to run over our law enforcement officers," while Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey pushed back on this characterization. The Department of Homeland Security has routinely defended the shootings as necessary to protect officer safety, however video and witnesses have disputed their accounts in many cases. ICE is used as a catch-all phrase to denote any Federal government law enforcement official. (1/27/2026) (Identical market to: source market)

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (27.4% → 24.2%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:27 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 2:51 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next570 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~20h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.224H-3.27D-3.2

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