Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
18.9 mana
Total volume
300.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 18, 2026, 1:10 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 24.2% (down from 27.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 18.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
18.9 mana
Total volume
300.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
10
Trades
116
over 77 days
Largest order
40 mana
287.2 mana traded across these 116 trades (last 77 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if an ICE agent kills an American citizen before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on verified news reports confirming the death of a U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if an ICE agent kills an American citizen before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on verified news reports confirming the death of a U.S. citizen at the hands of an ICE agent. The victim must be confirmed as a U.S. citizen by credible sources (news organizations, government statements, or court documents). Accidental deaths unrelated to enforcement actions do not count. Background An ICE agent fatally shot a woman in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026, marking a significant escalation in immigration enforcement operations. The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a 37-year-old mother and U.S. citizen. This is at least the fifth person killed in a handful of states since 2024, with federal officers fatally shooting at least three other people in the last five months prior to the Minneapolis incident. The Trace has counted more than a dozen such shootings involving ICE and Border Patrol agents in recent months. Considerations The Minneapolis shooting has generated significant dispute over the circumstances. Dueling narratives emerged over what led to the shooting, with DHS claiming the woman "weaponized her vehicle, attempting to run over our law enforcement officers," while Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey pushed back on this characterization. The Department of Homeland Security has routinely defended the shootings as necessary to protect officer safety, however video and witnesses have disputed their accounts in many cases. ICE is used as a catch-all phrase to denote any Federal government law enforcement official. (1/27/2026) (Identical market to: source market)
The probability fell 3.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (27.4% → 24.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 2:51 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.