Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
29 mana
Total volume
441.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 17, 2026, 12:49 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 20.3% (down from 26.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 29 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
29 mana
Total volume
441.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
10
Trades
17
over 52 days
Largest order
100 mana
434.6 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 52 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States threatens to attack Canada before January 1st 2027. A qualifying threat must involve the threatened use of the U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States threatens to attack Canada before January 1st 2027. A qualifying threat must involve the threatened use of the U.S. military or other U.S. armed force against Canada, Canadian territory, Canadian government forces, or Canadian-controlled infrastructure. This includes, but is not limited to, threats of invasion, military strikes, bombardment, armed seizure of territory, or another direct use of military force. Threats made by the President of the United States, the Vice President, Cabinet members, or other senior U.S. government officials may qualify. Statements do not need to use the exact words "attack Canada" if their meaning clearly communicates that U.S. military force against Canada is a possible or intended consequence. This market explicitly includes threats to use military force against Canada in order to resolve, influence, or obtain concessions in a trade or economic dispute. For example, a credible statement that the United States may use military force against Canada unless Canada agrees to particular tariffs, trade terms, resource access, economic concessions, or other demands would qualify. The threat may be conditional. Statements such as "if Canada does X, we will use military force" can qualify provided the military meaning is sufficiently clear and the statement is attributable to the U.S. government or a sufficiently senior U.S. official. Only threats that were made after the creation time of this market are taken into consideration for the resolution of this question. Resolution should be based on official statements, recordings or transcripts, or credible reporting from reputable news organizations. Unverified rumors, anonymous social-media claims, or statements whose authenticity is seriously disputed are insufficient on their own. Resolves NO if no qualifying threat is made before January 1st 2027.
The probability fell 5.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.0% → 20.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 2:52 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.