AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 10.3% (down from 17.1% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ42 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized. Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized. Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/. Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it. Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website. Resolves to NO if this does not occur. (Identical market to: source market)
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (17.1% → 10.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 6, 2026 at 2:03 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 12:12 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 97% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ42
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ600.3
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 10.3%
- 7-day range
- 10.3% – 18.3%
- Resolves
- Oct 6, 2026