As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:24 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 99.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $45 traded in the past 24 hours and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts.
The venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market; the price has held steady over 24 hours.
Source: Kalshi price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Book depth (±5 pts)
$14.6K
live order book
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$45
Open interest
$1.5K
Without depth data we can't say how much it would take to move this price.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's off…
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:36 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
$45
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$2.8K