ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?8%▼44.5Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?23%▲21.4Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?51%▲21.6Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?38%▼17.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?84%▲44.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?38%▲29.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?94%▲31.3Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?4%▼12.7Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?17%▲11.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?41%▼5.5Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?11%▲6.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?40%▼9.1Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?59%▲11.5Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?37%▲11.2Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?26%▼14.5Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?50%▲19.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?8%▼44.5Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?23%▲21.4Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?51%▲21.6Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?38%▼17.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?84%▲44.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?38%▲29.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?94%▲31.3Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?4%▼12.7Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?17%▲11.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?41%▼5.5Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?11%▲6.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?40%▼9.1Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?59%▲11.5Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?37%▲11.2Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?26%▼14.5Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?50%▲19.5
Home/Politics/Will Kathryn Mizelle become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
KalshiPoliticsUpdated 12m ago

Will Kathryn Mizelle become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Market probability
0.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
885 days until the event deadline
Deadline: January 20, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If Kathryn Mizelle is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If Kathryn Mizelle is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If Kathryn Mizelle is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice …

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 20, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 19, 10:07 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

$2

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$13.6K

Category
Politics
Venue
Kalshi
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

21/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

9%YESTrust 22
Kalshi$39.2 24h

Will Kristen Waggoner become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

0%YESTrust 21
Kalshi$0 24h

Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

0%YESTrust 68
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Low liquidity score (37)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
5Low
Where the price path tends to go next733 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
$9.5K
Spread
0.4 pts
Best bid
0.2%
Best ask
0.6%
7-day range
0.4% – 0.4%
Resolves
Jan 20, 2029
Resolution
If Kathryn Mizelle is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice …

Trust breakdown

21/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+27
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score21 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$22.9K 24h

Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0%YESTrust 90
Polymarket$64.3K 24h

Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$202.2K 24h

Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

0%YESTrust 69
Polymarket$22.9K 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]