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Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?100%▲0.1 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?95%▲32.8 Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?5%▼11.2 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?10%▼10.0 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?3%▲2.9 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?28%▼15.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?31%▼7.0 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%▼1.2 Will TheOldLlm get to 1K discord users before the end of next month ?5%▼45.0 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?33%▼1.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?0%▼6.4 Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?16%▼10.5 In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion (PPIC.org). Will 2026 GDP be at least 4.4 trillion?64%▲21.2 Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 203118%▼16.5 J. D. Vance join the SSPX in a public manner before Christmas Eve 2028?20%▼7.1 Will leagues end in the first 12 hours of the 24 hour period?34%▼15.7 Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?100%▲0.1 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?95%▲32.8 Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?5%▼11.2 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?10%▼10.0 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?3%▲2.9 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?28%▼15.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?31%▼7.0 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%▼1.2 Will TheOldLlm get to 1K discord users before the end of next month ?5%▼45.0 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?33%▼1.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?0%▼6.4 Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?16%▼10.5 In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion (PPIC.org). Will 2026 GDP be at least 4.4 trillion?64%▲21.2 Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 203118%▼16.5 J. D. Vance join the SSPX in a public manner before Christmas Eve 2028?20%▼7.1 Will leagues end in the first 12 hours of the 24 hour period?34%▼15.7

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Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?100%▲0.1 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?95%▲32.8 Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?5%▼11.2 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?10%▼10.0 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?3%▲2.9 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?28%▼15.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?31%▼7.0 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%▼1.2 Will TheOldLlm get to 1K discord users before the end of next month ?5%▼45.0 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?33%▼1.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?0%▼6.4 Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?16%▼10.5 In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion (PPIC.org). Will 2026 GDP be at least 4.4 trillion?64%▲21.2 Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 203118%▼16.5 J. D. Vance join the SSPX in a public manner before Christmas Eve 2028?20%▼7.1 Will leagues end in the first 12 hours of the 24 hour period?34%▼15.7 Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?100%▲0.1 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?95%▲32.8 Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?5%▼11.2 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?10%▼10.0 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?3%▲2.9 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?28%▼15.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?31%▼7.0 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%▼1.2 Will TheOldLlm get to 1K discord users before the end of next month ?5%▼45.0 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?33%▼1.0 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?0%▼6.4 Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?16%▼10.5 In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion (PPIC.org). Will 2026 GDP be at least 4.4 trillion?64%▲21.2 Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 203118%▼16.5 J. D. Vance join the SSPX in a public manner before Christmas Eve 2028?20%▼7.1 Will leagues end in the first 12 hours of the 24 hour period?34%▼15.7

Event · resolves around 2026-07-01

Bitcoin — price targets · Jul 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $496.2K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?	Polymarket	Crypto	0%	-6.4 pts	$304.4K	87	59	Real move
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?	Polymarket	Crypto	100%	+0.7 pts	$191.9K	84	68	Worth watching

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.