Event · resolves around 2031-02-15
If — macro release · Feb 2031
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030? | ManifoldPlay money | 38% | -1.9 pts | 40 | Developing |
| If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030? | ManifoldPlay money | 38% | -1.9 pts | 40 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.