Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
50 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:11 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 38.1% (down from 40.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
38.1%
−1.9 percentage points
over 24 hours40.0% → 38.1%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with only a few recent trades.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
1
Trades
1
Largest order
50 mana
50 mana traded across these 1 trades.
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$50 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is negative for any quarter of 2029 or 2030. Uses each quarter's advance estimate as first published; later revisions don't count. Resolves once the Q4 2030 advance estimate is out. This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes. Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 15, 2031 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:18 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next431 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~26h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-1.97D-1.9