Event · resolves around 2029-01-03
If Democrats — election · Jan 2029
5 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Cabinet nomination be rejected or withdrawn before January 3, 2029? | Manifold | 51% | +11.3 pts | 1 | Likely noise |
| If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029? | Manifold | 7% | -1.0 pts | 28 | Developing |
| If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029? | Manifold | 59% | +4.2 pts | 12 | Likely noise |
| If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029? | Manifold | 72% | +2.5 pts | 7 | Likely noise |
| If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Congress ban its members from trading individual stocks before Jan 3, 2029? | Manifold | 33% | +7.8 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
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