ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?13%▼10.0Fed rate hike in 2026?46%▼6.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?74%▲26.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?84%▲3.9Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?40%▲14.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?15%▼20.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?39%▼13.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?24%▼9.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?40%▲3.0Mitch McConnell alive all of October 2026?85%▲25.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?19%▼5.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?85%▲20.5Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?70%▲8.8Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?64%▼7.0Strait of Hormuz is an American territory before start of 2030?26%▼15.2Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?86%▼3.2
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?13%▼10.0Fed rate hike in 2026?46%▼6.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?74%▲26.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?84%▲3.9Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?40%▲14.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?15%▼20.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?39%▼13.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?24%▼9.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?40%▲3.0Mitch McConnell alive all of October 2026?85%▲25.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?19%▼5.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?85%▲20.5Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?70%▲8.8Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?64%▼7.0Strait of Hormuz is an American territory before start of 2030?26%▼15.2Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?86%▼3.2

Event · resolves around 2026-11-04

Democrats — election · Nov 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Democrats win Iowa, Texas or both in the 2026 US Senate elections?ManifoldPolitics57%-0.6 ptsṀ13015Developing
Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?ManifoldPolitics66%0.0 ptsṀ0312Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]