Event · resolves around 2026-10-05
Luiz — election · Oct 2026
2 related contracts across Polymarket · $75.4K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | Polymarket | 57% | -11.0 pts | 9 | Likely noise |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | Polymarket | 17% | +1.0 pts | 33 | Developing |
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