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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?88%▲13.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?23%▼21.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?23%▼15.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 24?2%▼6.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?64%▲11.0 Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?6%▼8.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?80%▼1.0 What does the "G" stand for in "ChatGPT" (and LLMs like GPT-4)?99%▲44.2 Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?33%▼3.0 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)26%▼24.0 Does the actions of Israel in West Bank and Gaza are inhuman?81%▲23.6 Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?27%▼4.0 On May 1st 2028 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?85%▲21.6 Ethereum price at Jul 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?69%▲12.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?31%▲0.0 Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?59%▲3.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?88%▲13.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?23%▼21.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?23%▼15.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 24?2%▼6.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?64%▲11.0 Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?6%▼8.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?80%▼1.0 What does the "G" stand for in "ChatGPT" (and LLMs like GPT-4)?99%▲44.2 Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?33%▼3.0 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)26%▼24.0 Does the actions of Israel in West Bank and Gaza are inhuman?81%▲23.6 Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?27%▼4.0 On May 1st 2028 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?85%▲21.6 Ethereum price at Jul 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?69%▲12.0 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?31%▲0.0 Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?59%▲3.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-24

Rebecca Shepherd — election · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $1.4M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	0%	0.0 pts	$1.1M	83	78	Worth watching
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	100%	0.0 pts	$225K	74	67	Worth watching

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.