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Event · resolves around 2026-08-13
2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $46.3K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | Polymarket | 98% | -0.2 pts | 67 | Developing |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by election? | Manifold | 94% | 0.0 pts | 53 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.