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Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?100%▲65.0 Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100%▲36.0 Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?76%▲5.0 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?65%▲20.0 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?27%▼33.1 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?16%▼5.0 Portugal leading at halftime?0%▼55.5 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?77%▼2.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?21%▲0.7 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?8%▼5.3 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? 0%▼5.6 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?0%▼0.2 Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?1%▼0.3 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?0%▼0.7 Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%▼0.1 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?100%▲0.0 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?100%▲65.0 Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100%▲36.0 Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?76%▲5.0 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?65%▲20.0 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?27%▼33.1 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?16%▼5.0 Portugal leading at halftime?0%▼55.5 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?77%▼2.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?21%▲0.7 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?8%▼5.3 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? 0%▼5.6 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?0%▼0.2 Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?1%▼0.3 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?0%▼0.7 Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%▼0.1 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?100%▲0.0

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Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100%▲21.0 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?65%▲19.0 Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?76%▲4.5 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?44%▼16.1 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?16%▼5.0 Portugal leading at halftime?0%▼89.5 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?100%▲11.5 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?77%▼2.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?21%▲0.8 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? 0%▼6.7 Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?1%▼0.3 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?0%▲0.1 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?0%▼0.7 Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%▼0.1 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?100%▲0.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?100%▲0.3 Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100%▲21.0 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?65%▲19.0 Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?76%▲4.5 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?44%▼16.1 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?16%▼5.0 Portugal leading at halftime?0%▼89.5 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?100%▲11.5 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?77%▼2.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?21%▲0.8 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? 0%▼6.7 Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?1%▼0.3 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?0%▲0.1 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?0%▼0.7 Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%▼0.1 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?100%▲0.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?100%▲0.3

Event · resolves around 2026-07-18

Oceania — election · Jul 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $2.1M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Polymarket	Geopolitics	0%	0.0 pts	$1.1M	79	62	Worth watching
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	1%	-0.3 pts	$977.4K	92	93	Worth watching

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.