Event · resolves around 2100-12-31
Wojciech H. Zurek — awards · Dec 2100
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Wojciech H. Zurek ever win a Nobel Prize? | Manifold | 26% | +2.6 pts | 24 | Developing |
| Will Alan Guth ever win a Nobel Prize? | Manifold | 19% | -1.1 pts | 25 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.