Event · resolves around 2026-12-31
Chinese — event · Dec 2026
3 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027? | Manifold | 83% | +20.7 pts | 3 | Likely noise |
| Will Chinese humanoid robot companies ship 50x more units than US companies by EOY 2026 | Manifold | 41% | +0.8 pts | 37 | Developing |
| Will Chinese humanoid robot companies ship 50x more units than US companies by EOY 2026 | Manifold | 41% | +1.2 pts | 25 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.