Event · resolves around 2026-10-12
Anthropic — event · Oct 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026? | ManifoldPlay money | 1% | -2.8 pts | 36 | Developing |
| Will Roofcast's pilot for their property prediction platform get 50 sign ups before October 12? | ManifoldPlay money | 62% | -13.4 pts | 17 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.