Event · resolves around 2026-09-01
Anthropic — event · Sep 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Anthropic release a newer Claude Sonnet model before September 1, 2026? | Manifold | 24% | -26.2 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
| Will Google publicly release Gemini 3.5 Pro before September 1, 2026? | Manifold | 12% | -13.3 pts | 0 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.