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Sunday, September 27, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 27.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 24.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 47.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (17 in 24h)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Polymarketyes
- Will I be permabanned due to complications related to Nash Pit shenanigans?Manifoldno
- Will a manifolder report on the Oreo chicken burger in the next month?Manifoldno
- Will Trent-Alexander Arnold start against Spain on 26 September 2026?Manifoldno
- Will somebody use my Bilt referral link before end of Sep 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.