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Saturday, September 26, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 7.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 86.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (23 in 24h)
- Will there be a Jev-style decision output model not made by typesafe on OpenRouter by end 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will there be a second Jev-style decision output model on OpenRouter by end 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, September 25, 2026? (Closes early)Manifoldno
- Ethereum price at Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Sep 25?Manifoldno
- Will Ryan get his discord powers/role back?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.