ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?40%▼40.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?17%▼30.9Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?58%▲15.9Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?41%▼20.0CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?100%▲11.7Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?42%▼15.0Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?7%▼15.9Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?35%▼11.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?65%▲11.0Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?18%▼48.5Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?75%▼4.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?59%▼6.0Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?30%▲13.8If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?50%▲4.7Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?14%▲1.0Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?27%▲2.5

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Thursday, September 24, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Moved up 15.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+15.958%Confirmed move
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-15.042%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-11.035%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+11.065%Confirmed move
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.075%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?

Moved up 11.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+11.7100%Likely noise
Will Alex Radu find a sponsor for Disposition (or any other YSWS) by the end of November 2026?

Moved up 93.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+93.997%Likely noise
Will CNN, MS NOW, and Politico all regain White House press access before October 2026?

Moved up 53.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+53.491%Likely noise

Settled (11 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.