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Thursday, August 20, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 5.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 25.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 21.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 43.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 30.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (270 in 24h)
- Bitcoin price reaches 70k USD before EOYManifoldyes
- Ethereum price at Aug 20, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?Polymarketyes
- Ethereum price at Aug 20, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?Polymarketyes
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Polymarketyes
- Ethereum price at Aug 20, 2026 at 9pm EDT?Kalshino
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.