Odds Reliability Brief · archived edition · live feed →
Monday, October 12, 2026
The day’s odds moves, sorted by whether the trading behind them can be believed — captured Oct 12, 11:39 PM ET.
Reliable moves
Repricings backed by real volume and healthy books.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Oct 12, 11:39 PM ET
Moved up 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Oct 12, 11:39 PM ET
Likely noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved down 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Polymarket · Likely Noise · data as of Oct 12, 11:39 PM ET
Moved up 52.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Oct 12, 11:39 PM ET
Widest venue disagreement
The largest gap between approved cross-venue pairs pricing the same question.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 2.0 ptsHow the market called it
A recently settled market and what it was pricing 24 hours before the deadline.
Methodology: verdicts restate ProbCast’s existing Movement, Liquidity and Trust scores — a move is “reliable” when the repricing is backed by real volume, tight spreads and fresh prices, and “likely noise” when it isn’t. No new judgment is applied on this page. Full rules on the methodology page.
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