Odds Reliability Brief · archived edition · live feed →
Monday, August 24, 2026
The day’s odds moves, sorted by whether the trading behind them can be believed — captured Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET.
Reliable moves
Repricings backed by real volume and healthy books.
Moved up 41.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET
Moved up 26.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET
Moved up 14.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET
Likely noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved up 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Kalshi · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET
Moved down 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Kalshi · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET
Moved up 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Kalshi · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 24, 11:59 PM ET
Methodology: verdicts restate ProbCast’s existing Movement, Liquidity and Trust scores — a move is “reliable” when the repricing is backed by real volume, tight spreads and fresh prices, and “likely noise” when it isn’t. No new judgment is applied on this page. Full rules on the methodology page.
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